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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.