Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
