A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
